Saturday, March 28, 2015

Demographics Are Our Destiny

by Dr. Ellen Brandt




The 50-and-over population is now simply too large to ignore - so let's stop ignoring it.


If you live anywhere in the developed world, chances are you've been subjected to some inaccurate and politically-motivated propaganda about the economic and political status of various generations - particularly the Boomers.



Over the past few months, the vaunted "MSM" has offered story after story, broadcast after broadcast, about how we Baby Boomers, still fully 1/3 of the population of the United States, Europe, Japan, the rest of the developed world, and - significantly - China, have "lost our crown" as The Largest Generation to the Millennials, most of whom, of course, are the children of Boomers.



Any number of (apparently mathematics-illiterate) reporters have crowed that "Boomers are no longer the majority generation," which we - and every other living generation - never were and never will be.



Boomers, now in our 50s and 60s, have been celebrated demographically for making up 1/3 of the population in the developed world (and China) - that 33-34 percent figure being quite exceptional and quite extraordinary.



The Millennials, Boomers' offspring, now exceed the Boomer population by a half-percentage point or so. Therefore, Yes, they are also an exceptionally large generation and, in that demographic sense, also quite extraordinary.



They are not, however, taking over the population of the developed world - not by a long shot. Nor should their new status - partly the result of young immigrants, by the way - suddenly make them the primary -  and it often seems the sole - focus of our economy, our politics, our culture, or anything else.



Because while the Official Media - and the political forces behind it - have been pumping the Millennials-as-Locusts theme with both fervor and furor, they have pretty much completely ignored the actual Big Story in demographics: the great expansion in our over-age-50 population, which - if we let it - will continue for at least the next two decades - and possibly beyond.



This expansion is largely a result of the Gen-Xers, a smaller generation than either the Boomers or the Millennials, but an influential one, nevertheless, beginning to pass the age-50 milestone, with their numbers "front-loaded," meaning the vanguard Gen-Xers are more numerous than younger ones.



Meanwhile, although much of the "Greatest Generation," who were Boomers' own parents, are gone or well into advanced age ranges, the Gen-X-like generation between Boomers and Boomers' parents - people now in their 70s and 80s - are still going strong.



This generally unnamed generation, which was born during the Depression of the 1930s and the years of World War Two, produced many great leaders in political, business, and cultural life.



But demographically, its most interesting and compelling feature may be the fact that it was the first modern generation to embrace health and fitness fervently, with far fewer smokers or heavy drinkers than previous recent generations and more avid dieters and exercise buffs. And these Depression-World War Two babies have also been the earliest beneficiaries of various important advances in healthcare and disease prevention during the last two-thirds of the 20th century.



The above is a roundabout way of saying that the generation now in their 70s and 80s are likely to live several years longer, on average, than the Greatest Generation did.



Combine them with the fully 1/3 of the population which still consists of Baby Boomers - now aged 51-69 - and the vanguard Gen-Xers beginning to turn 50 this year, and we suddenly have an American population - and a European and Japanese and Canadian and Australian and Chinese one - in which over 40 percent of everyone - 2 in 5 citizens or consumers or voters - is aged 50 or older.



And far from decreasing from this point on, the proportion of the population 50 or older is going to increase over the next few years to a high point of 43 or 45 or possibly even 48 percent, depending on just how long the Depression-World War Two era babies, the Boomers, and the Gen-Xers survive.



For the Boomers, those now in our 50s and 60s, that's likely to be another 30 or even 40 years of healthy, happy, and productive lives - provided we're allowed to live them.